VARIABILITY ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL INDICATORS OF KAZAKHSTAN’S REAL SECTOR OF ECONOMY

Dagmirzaev O.A.
S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical University

Abstract. The study’s main purpose is to analyze the variability of regional indicators of Kazakhstan’s real sector of economy by leveraging Factor Analysis. Processed indicators encompass 1999–2019, i.e. 21 years. The number of regions is 14. Input information was compressed as follows: mean values of indicators of each region in 21 years were calculated and then one final table was created. Results of Factor Analysis. All industries of real sector of economy may be lined up in four groups according to common interregional variability criterion: 1) mining industry; 2) manufacturing industry; 3) agriculture (crop and livestock breeding); 4) transport and communication. According to Factor Analysis methodology, it is considered that there is a certain factor behind the indicators of each selected group, i.e. there is an objective reason. The factors are independent, therefore, the indicators of different groups do not have statistical relations among each other. The indicators of mining and manufacturing industries have certain regional orientations, i.e. few areas have either mining or manufacturing sectors developed. Agriculture is also a region-dependent sector of the real economy. Significant part of regional variability of livestock sector and almost total interregional variability of population have common factor behind (total variances 0.57 and 0.94). In other words, livestock breeding is predominantly developed in regions with a denser population. Transport and communication sectors are not bound to certain regions, they flourish in heavily populated areas (total variances 0.69; 0.85; 0.61). Interregional fluctuations of resource indicator, i.e. capital investments, almost totally match with similar fluctuations in mining and construction (total variances 0.94; 0.70; 0.97). As for capital investments directed to other sectors, their interregional variability is negligible. What is this talking about? Capital investments, except for mining and construction, are pinpoint investments, i.e. allocated to certain regions only.

Keywords: real sector of economy, regions of the country, variability, multivariate statistical analysis, Factor Analysis, variance, correlation coefficients

Volume 6, Issue 3(31) p. 18-24 PDF

DOI: 10.52013/2712-9713-31-1-3